Predicting presence and abundance of a small mammal species: the effect of scale and resolution

ORROCK, J.L.; PAGELS, J.F.; MCSHEA, W.J.; HARPER, E.K. 2000. Predicting presence and abundance of a small mammal species: the effect of scale and resolution. Ecological Applications 10(5):1356-1366.

Abstract. Management of small mammal communities in forest ecosystems requires a working knowledge of the scales at which species presence and abundance can best be predicted. Habitat-based models were developed to characterize the distribution of a boreal relict, the southern red-backed vole, Clethrionomys gapperi, in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA, at three hierarchical scales of analysis. Vole presence and abundance were most evident at the high-resolution (macrohabitat) scale, followed by the intermediateresolution scale. The low-resolution model was the least effective for predicting presence or abundance and reflects the need for more resolute landscape classification systems if small mammal populations are to be accounted for in an ecologically relevant manner. Tree and shrub communities indicative of suitable vole habitat included Fraxinus pennsylvanica and Tsuga canadensis in the canopy and Carpinus caroliniana in the understory. Vole abundance increased with incidence of tree species such as Betula alleghaniensis, Pinus rigida, and Prunus serotina in the canopy, and Acer spicatum and woody vines in the understory. Voles were associated with northwest-facing high-elevation sites with abundant rocky substrate, likely a reflection of physiological water and thermal requirements, biogeographic influences, and the importance of substrate complexity for decreasing inter- and intraspecific interactions and avoidance of predators.
Identification of the most effective resolution of landscape characterization improves habitat-based models of C. gapperi population dynamics in managed landscapes. Lowresolution habitat classifications may suffice for detecting suitable vole habitats within forest types, but prediction of vole abundance is most accurate at the greatest resolution, i.e., the macrohabitat scale. The utility of forest communities and habitats at various scales to predict vole presence and abundance suggests that C. gapperi may be a useful indicator species for identification and assessment of habitat important for rare small mammal species in the southern Appalachians.